At the end of two presidential debates and one vice presidential debate, Obama maintains a commanding lead. He has continued to project presidential temperament and proficiency. He is closing his last gap in voter's minds, is he ready to be president, do I feel safe electing him to be president. These three debates have uniformly been victories for Obama. McCain was not able to dent Obama, nor change the game. In contrast, McCain continues to make Obama look more presidential.
As of this moment, the presidential election is on trajectory for a landslide victory for Barrack Obama. If McCain is not able to change the inflection of this trajectory, he is going to lose: McCain 200 Obama 338 electoral votes.
[update 10-09-2008 1pm: Bold Added]
Take a breath. Don't uncork any champagne yet. The Mickey Mouse Club TV show of the fifties had themes for each day but Thursday. Thursday was, "Anything Can Happen Day."
In election years, October is Thursday.
Granted, anything can happen. My point is that something must happen to change the trajectory of this race or Obama is going to win by a landslide.
There are a few October surprises brewing for McCain. The only one I have seen for Obama is the Ayers connection. We shall see how it plays, and we shall see what if any non-candidate-created game changers happen in the coming four weeks.
To my view, Gibbs dismantled any strength within the criticisms of Obama's Ayers connection when he spoke with Hannity.
I don't think Ayers is a big deal. October surprises have to be fresh. Ayers has been floating around for too many months to have a significant impact. His bad news has already been felt.
Here is the area of concern for Obama: Recent studies on racist attitudes suggest that they are largely subconscious. The only way to determine the level of racism in a person is to flash subliminal images of a black person and observe the stimulation of the imigdula, the area of the brain stem that focuses on emotional reaction. It is part of the fight/flight response system.
It is impossible to scan the imigdula in a poll. Polls only measure conscious thought. Those who have done the subliminal image tests with scans of the imigdula say that virtually all white Americans over 50 have a response, as do folks who have been suffered a violent crime at the hand of a black person, as well as people who have missed an employment or academic opportunity that they have blamed on affirmative action.
When people go into the voting booth on November 4th, what will win out; conscious concerns about an economy in shreds, or a stimulated imigdula? Any state where Obama is not above the 50th percentile in the polls on November 4th is a danger zone for him, and there are a lot of states where Obama only has a plurality. The Bradley effect says that a plurality is not enough, National polls will only matter when the electoral college is eliminated. Ask Al Gore.
